The onset of monsoon is imminent. Along with the rains, the season brings natural disasters—landslides, floodings, inundations, embankment breaches, thunderstorms, snakebites, and a host of water-borne diseases.

This year, the country is likely to witness below-average rainfall in the monsoon season, according to a forecast by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. But that does not mean all areas across the country will see equal rainfall, experts say.

As climate disasters fuelled by erratic weather patterns become more frequent and pronounced, the country could witness more incidents of disasters during the monsoon, weathermen warn. Some places could witness massive rainfall, others may face drought, while dry-spell-like conditions could be seen in other places.

Accordingly, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority has estimated that at least 1.5 million people will be affected by natural disasters during the monsoon. The authority has directed all those concerned to start preparations accordingly.

Experts, however, are sceptical of the country’s capacity to handle large-scale disasters as the relevant agencies have not learned from the past disasters or accidents. They warn that the continuation of the reactive approach (springing into action only after disasters) will cause huge losses to the people as well as the country.

Here’s a look at Nepal’s disaster vulnerability and the country’s preparedness to deal with disasters:

Nepal’s vulnerability to natural disasters

Nepal is highly vulnerable to natural disasters. In the spring, the country witnessed incidents of massive forest fires. At least five people died and dozens were injured in fire-related incidents. The fires not only burnt forests, they also damaged ecology, affected wild and endangered animals and worsened the air quality, which severely impacted human health.

And, within the next three weeks, the monsoon will arrive. Rain usually doesn’t come alone. It brings in its wake multiple incidents of natural disasters—landslides, floods, inundations, embankment breaches, thunder strikes, snakebites, and water- and vector-borne diseases.

Hundreds of people die each year and thousands get injured and displaced in the aftermath of disasters. Thousands get infected with vector-borne diseases such as dengue, kala-azar and diarrhoea.

Landslides, thunder strikes and flooding

Heavy rainfall triggers landslides in the districts of hilly regions and several districts in the Tarai region get inundated every monsoon. Landslides and flooding not only inflict damage to private and public properties, they also kill scores of people every year.

During last year’s monsoon, 102 people—53 male and 49 female—died and 19 were reported missing in landslides. According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, 96 people were injured in various incidents of landslides, 2,004 families were affected, 1,017 private houses were partially damaged while 865 houses were destroyed by landslides.

Likewise, 100 people—61 male and 39 female—were killed and 330 others injured in thunder strikes in the last rainy season. Altogether, 590 families were affected by thunderbolt incidents.

“Nepal is ranked fifth among the most-affected countries in the world in incidents of thunderbolts and the losses they cause,” said Dhurba Bahadur Khadka, spokesperson for the authority. “Deaths of 100 people from thunderbolts is no small matter.”

Similarly, 19 people—11 male and 8 female—died in flood-related incidents last year. The authority said as many as 15 people are still missing, 17 were injured and at least 160 families were directly affected by floods.

The season of epidemic

Monsoon is considered an epidemic season with the country witnessing massive outbreaks of water- and vector-borne diseases. Nepal is highly vulnerable to water-borne diseases, including diarrhoea, dysentery, typhoid, hepatitis, and cholera, with thousands of people falling sick every year. Poor sanitation and hygiene conditions are also to blame.

Last year, the Kathmandu valley, too, witnessed a massive cholera outbreak in which at least 77 cases were confirmed. Hundreds of people suffered from diarrhoea, cases of which continued to be found for months.

Likewise, vector-borne diseases—dengue, kala-azar, malaria, and scrub typhus, among others—are recorded during the monsoon season. Last year, at least 88 people died and more than 54,000 were infected by the dengue virus, which spread to all 77 districts of the country. Hospitals in Kathmandu Valley were overwhelmed by dengue patients and even the seriously ailing ones were deprived of beds for treatment.

Apart from an uptick in the outbreaks of water- and vector-borne diseases, cases of snake bites too, increase during monsoon. Scores of people die from venomous snake bites.

Displaced people are more vulnerable

Experts say when people get displaced in disasters—landslides, flooding and inundation, they become more vulnerable to multiple problems—water-borne diseases, vector-borne diseases, snake bites, and cold-related ailments. Displaced people are often sheltered in makeshift buildings in generally unsafe conditions and their sanitation, too, is compromised. Due to the lack of nutritious food and absence of healthcare services, the displaced, especially pregnant women and new mothers, suffer.

Nepal’s handling of disasters

Every year, floods and landslides cause huge losses of life and property, but the country’s disaster preparedness is still poor. Over the past few years, it has been receiving more rainfall in short durations—an abnormal phenomenon that is slowly becoming the new normal.

However, many incidents of disasters in the past exposed the government’s lack of preparedness.

Displaced people had been compelled to live in makeshift shelters set up after the disasters, some built near the damaged houses in risky zones. Many are still living in such shelters.

According to officials at the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, of the 865 families displaced from last year’s landslides, only around 300 have taken the second instalment of the relief provided by the government to rebuild houses, which means the remaining ones have not even started reconstruction works.

Dozens of displaced families need to be relocated to safety but they are compelled to live in areas prone to landslides, the officials concede.

The state of preparations

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, the central resource body for disaster management, said it has prepared a response plan for the upcoming monsoon. Such a plan needs to be made with a bottom-up approach involving every ward, municipality, disaster response authority in the districts, as well as the provinces and federal government agencies.

“As the local government units are first responders to any natural disaster, they should do risk mapping and planning first,” said Khadka, spokesperson for the authority. “However, we [a federal government agency] did our risk mapping first, as the local and provincial government agencies took much time to carry out their risk mapping. It would have been more scientific had the local and provincial agencies done their planning first.”

Officials say agencies under 10 ministries, including the Ministry of Home Affairs, Ministry of Health and Population, Ministry of Urban Development, and Ministry of Water Supply, which are generally involved in disaster response, have been preparing. The UN agencies also play an important role by providing aid and assistance.

Such agencies have been instructed to keep relief logistics ready in all seven provincial stores.

Expert’s take

Experts say the government’s responsibility goes beyond formulating policies and guidelines. When disasters strike in far-flung and remote areas, rescuers cannot reach there immediately and local residents work as first responders. But they lack training and are ill-equipped. That leads to loss of lives and property that could be prevented, they added.

“Most agencies under local units are ill-equipped and lack the expertise to handle disaster-related incidents,” said Santona Devkota, a disaster risk reduction trainer. “Such agencies should get training, equipment and funds. We tend to wait until the disaster strikes. We cannot cut losses through such a reactive approach.”

After casualties and loss of properties, the agencies spring into action. And then after a few months, everyone forgets. Experts say only an effective monsoon preparedness plan can save lives and properties.

“Besides arranging for necessary things, federal government agencies should also coordinate among the agencies under local and provincial governments,” said Devkota. “Early warning systems should be made effective and attention should be given to raising awareness of the risks.”

Local units are advised to work proactively to respond to disaster-related incidents. For that, they can stockpile goods, train volunteers, organise simulations and develop early warning systems.

“Each and every agency—Army, Police, Armed Police, non-governmental organisations—and agencies under the ministries have their own responsibilities,” said Devkota. “Those agencies should act proactively.”