Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is bracing for a confrontation on November 24 as it has called a massive rally in Islamabad demanding the release of its leader, Imran Khan. Khan has been imprisoned for a year on several cases, including the attack on a military installation, corruption and the Al Qadir Trust case.

Initially, the party leaders and its members of Parliament were set to participate in the protest; now, it has been extended to the entire nation. The PTI is apprehensive that its leaders may not join the rally as they might come under pressure. Therefore, general participation by sympathisers would keep the party’s popularity in good standing. Despite challenges and roadblocks, the party has always worked on show of strength; however, the May 9 incidents of violence and attack on the army installation, including a Corp Commander’s house, are a reminder of how such confrontation may go out of control.

The PTI has put forward three demands to call off the rally. First, reversal of the ‘stolen mandate’. The PTI thinks that in the last election, the party would have won but was denied due to the ‘mechanisation’ of the establishment, which allowed the Pakistan Muslim League (N) to form a new government. However, this narrative is not new. The party spoke about this when the last election voted the PML (N) into power. Second, the release of all the political prisoners of the party, and third, the reversal of the 26th Amendment Act passed recently by the Parliament.

PTI’s confrontation

Khan was perceived as the blue-eyed boy of Pakistan’s military establishment when he was elected prime minister. However, he fell from grace due to his confrontationist attitude with the powerful military. He blamed General Qamar Javed Bajwa, former Army Chief, for the no-confidence motion in the Parliament that forced him to resign in 2022 and, later, his election defeat in the February 2023 election. This was despite Bajwa being granted a three-year extension by the Khan government.

His attempt to promote Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed as the next Army Chief did not succeed. Gen. Hameed has been arrested and is facing court-martial on charges of corruption and abuse of power. Khan’s removal of Gen. Asim Munir, the current Chief of Army Staff, as Director-General of Inter-Services Intelligence was considered a political blunder. Yet, this was the first time the Pakistan Army was divided over their support for Khan, showing how he could create a political space for himself within the army as their best bet.

The army blames Imran Khan for the May 9, 2023, attacks, which severely blew the image of Pakistan’s military as an invincible player in domestic politics. The army holds Khan responsible for the inflammatory speech that motivated his supporters to attack.

The military strengthened its position after the Shehbaz Sharif government passed an amendment to the Pakistan Army Act, 1952, extending the tenure of the heads of the armed forces to five years. This would mean that Khan’s troubled relationship with the current Army Chief will not end soon. Parliamentarians from the PTI tore the bill in the National Assembly as a symbolic protest. Imran’s offer of dialogue with the government to resolve the problem notwithstanding, both for Sharif’s government and the PTI, the rally is a show of strength. This call for protest may rejuvenate the cadres and prove Khan’s political strength; however, the government will take all steps for its failure.

Imran Khan and populism

Khan has used his popularity for populist politics, evident through street power asking for fresh elections even after losing the election. He flags the ‘injustice’ he has suffered with false cases to motivate their workers to hold rallies. Despite attempts by the military, the leaders have remained united, fought the last election as independent candidates and desisted allurement to leave the PTI.

Yet Khan feels that some Parliamentarians may not join the PTI workers on the street. He has underlined that those elected on party ticket must be in Islamabad to support the PTI leadership. Meanwhile, the government has imposed Section 144 to foil the rally. The ban on it came after Khan’s supporters fired at the police during one of the overnight raids. If the past is an indicator, the PTI supporters have broken curfews and participated in party rallies. Each member of Parliament from the PTI is asked to get as many supporters as possible to make the rally successful.

Khan’s narrative is that he is innocent and is being politically persecuted for his stance on several issues of corruption and the role of the Army and external powers, especially the United States, in Pakistan’s politics. His supporters also believe that their leader is being politically victimised through the judiciary, where several corruption cases have been decided against him.

Top party leaders are also in jail. So, who will lead the party and motivate the supporters to break the curfew and join the Islamabad rally? His wife, Bushra Bibi, is facing several corruption cases, and his sister, Aleema Khan, has been making statements for the past few weeks asking his supporters to march to Islamabad. She is also meeting the PTI supporters and has been critical of the party leaders who have failed to pressurise the government for the release of their leader.

The PTI may not be able to hold the rally in Islamabad on November 24, but it is hell-bent on giving a fight to the establishment and putting forth their demand to release Khan. It will also demonstrate that their leader continues to hold sway over the party and has the charisma to organise rallies even while in jail.