President Prabowo Subianto is facing a major test of his leadership as signs of dissent against his new government have appeared in the form of student protests and the possible emergence of an opposition party.

Frustration at austerity measures introduced by the Prabowo administration to fund his ambitious campaign promises spilled into the streets last week, when thousands of students rallied against the budget cuts and other policies they say are “not pro-people”.

The protests, dubbed Indonesia Gelap (Dark Indonesia), began last Monday and were initially planned to conclude last Thursday in front of the Presidential Palace in Jakarta. But students continued to rally in some major cities on Friday, with activists and workers joining them in opposing Prabowo’s costly programs.

Tensions ran high on Friday evening when rallies in Jakarta and Makassar descended into violence, with protesters throwing firecrackers and Molotov cocktails at the police, who in turn fired tear gas and water cannons to disperse the crowds.

The weeklong protests marked the first significant opposition to Prabowo and his government in his four-month presidency, making him the first president in Indonesia’s post-Reform era history to witness the swiftest protest since assuming office.

They demanded the immediate repeal of the presidential instruction issued on Jan. 22, which mandates Rp 306.7 trillion (US$18.7 billion) in cuts to government spending, including on education, to fund his programs, such as the free nutritious meals program, and the establishment of a new sovereign wealth fund called Danantara.

Protesters also called for a full evaluation of the free meals program, an end to the military’s growing involvement in civilian affairs and cabinet downsizing. They also rejected former president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s involvement in the government.

Public dissatisfaction appears to have also rippled beyond the archipelago, with overseas students voicing their support for protesters at home and demanding that Prabowo “stop relying on viral policymaking” and that he “prioritize considering the public’s socioeconomic situation before making any policy”.

“Within 100 days of taking office, the policies implemented by the Prabowo-Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka administration have shown substantial regression that has the potential to bring suffering and is detrimental to the welfare of the people,” Vadaukas Valubia Laudza, a student at the Maastricht University’s European Law School, said in a statement on Friday.

Public distrust

Political researcher Nicky Fahrizal of think tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said on Saturday that the prolonged protests indicated “growing public distrust” of Prabowo’s large cabinet, fueled largely by the accumulation of its poorly calibrated policies and blunders made by his cabinet members early in his presidency.

The protests could pose a danger to Prabowo’s presidency, Nicky added, as it could “delegitimize” his new administration, which has marked its first 100 days in January with a high approval rating of more than 80 percent according to several pollsters.

“If left unaddressed, these waves of protests could widen to other segments of the population”, including members of lower-income groups who supported Prabowo in the presidential election last year, Nicky said.

Lili Romli, a senior political researcher at the National Innovation and Research Agency (BRIN), said Prabowo would need to be careful moving forward, stressing that every policy, including the free nutritious meals program, “needed to be based on thorough studies”.

He pointed out, for instance, how the free meals program was first rolled out in urban settings, where residents are known to have relatively good nutritional intake, rather than in remote areas.

“The government also needs to work on its public communication […] Some government officials have played a key role in making blunders that created negative sentiment among the public,” Lili said.

Return of opposition?

Those disenchanted with Prabowo’s government could find an ally in the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the party that has the largest share of seats in the House of Representatives and the only party that has not joined the ruling coalition, said analyst Dedi Kurnia Syah.

Amid students protests against Prabowo’s government, PDI-P matriarch Megawati Soekarnoputri ordered last week elected regional heads from her party to withdraw from Prabowo’s retreat in Magelang, Central Java, signaling the beginning of the party’s long-anticipated shift to becoming the sole opposition party.

If Prabowo is not careful, the PDI-P could seize the momentum of heightened public distrust to “mobilize their grassroots” and “instruct party representatives in the national legislature” to further undermine Prabowo’s leadership, Dedi said.

“Prabowo, therefore, needs to reduce pressure on the public by carefully evaluating policy direction and avoiding impulsive implementation of populist campaign promises. [He needs to] prioritize the interests of the nation rather than simply fulfilling campaign promises,” Dedi added.

 - In Association with Asia News Network