The largest-ever election in India, the most populous country in the world, is taking place in seven phases to elect 543 members to the lower house of parliament. Though the results are expected to be announced on June 4, 2024, most observers seem to agree that Prime Minister Narendra Damodardas Modi is all set to sail through comfortably into his third consecutive term.

Due to the plebiscitary nature of the elections—voters opting for or against Modi—the role of political parties in the contest has been pushed to the background. There is a lot of posturing but little passion among participants in publicity campaigns. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its partners in the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) are banking on the absence of a credible alternative to Modi. The Indian National Congress (INC) and its regional allies in the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) grouping have no comparable leader of national stature.

General elections in India used to be a festive affair. As of the third phase of polling, the election this time turns out to be one of the most insipid ones in Indian history, with little excitement among candidates and even less enthusiasm among voters.

There may be many reasons behind the relatively lower voter turnout—estimated to be 4 percent lower than in 2019—so far. The unusually scorching summer may have dampened the spirit of the electorate. The assumption that Modi would win anyway may have kept followers of the NDA from polling booths. In the absence of a visible anti-incumbency wave, the INDIA-grouping may have failed to inspire its supporters into turning out in large numbers.

Modi is fighting the election in all constituencies with local candidates presenting themselves merely as an extension of his persona. He is omnipresent: Here, there and everywhere on posters, billboards, selfie-points, banners, television screens, newspaper headlines and videos on the social media. Parties in the NDA, including Modi’s own BJP, are mere platforms, supporters are cheerleaders and Modi is the colossus challenging all gladiators of the opposition for political duels in every constituency. It is indeed a referendum on Modi’s leadership. Even after 72 years and 17 general elections, it’s a pity that polls are being portrayed as a mere legitimisation of re-anointing a strongman on the democratic throne of a country with more than one-sixth of all humanity.

Mixed bag

The performance record of Modi’s 10 years in office consists of colossal failures and dazzling successes. The whimsical demonetisation pauperised the poor and turned India into a country with a “serious” hunger severity. A massive mishandling of the Covid-19 pandemic inflicted enormous pain upon the migrant labour, especially in metropolitan cities, who lost their jobs, were thrown out of tenement and had to literally walk back home hundreds of kilometres facing untold misery and police harassment along the way.

Slower industrial activity combined with jobless growth has pushed the unemployment rate up. The richest 1 percent of India's population own 40.1 percent of country’s wealth, which is highest in six decades. The middle class has been pushed down the economic ladder due to a stagnant income in formal as well as informal sectors of the economy. Euphemistically called a Billionaire Raj, it seems the Modi regime is pushing a once-democratic country towards an elected autocracy that is hand-in-glove with the ultra-rich. The ruling plutocracy then turns the rich into super rich and makes the poor so poor that they will have to continue surviving on free rations that the government doles out to 800 million people.

A visible failure of the Modi government on the Himalayan fronts has made the pretentiously aggressive External Affairs Minister S, Jaishankar deny credible reports that India has “lost access to 26 out of 65 patrolling points in eastern Ladakh” and that “China continued to develop large-scale military infrastructure, including an airport, along the Line of Actual control”. India is perhaps the only major country from the developing world that has remained supportive of Israel’s genocidal campaigns in Gaza.

Despite its much-ballyhooed Neighbourhood First foreign policy, India’s relationships with almost every South Asian country has deteriorated under Modi. Even on the global stage, the supposed rise in India’s stature is a work of some very expensive public relations experts rather than any perceptible shift in the geoeconomic or geopolitical order. Whatever Modi’s publicists may say, India is still no match for China in the international arena.

A few successes appear to be far larger than they really are on the ground. The optics of landing on the moon or prostrations in the newly-built Ram Temple of Ayodhya look spectacular on television screens. The role of such ‘achievements’ in alleviating hunger, enlarging the availability of health care, improving the abysmal standards of public education, enlarging affordable transportation or creating jobs is somewhat suspect. It is doubtful if the scrapping of Article 370 that ended the special status of the only Muslim-majority state of Jammu and Kashmir will succeed in killing the aspirations of Kashmiris for full dignity and complete self-governance.

Perhaps just to make sure that he rides alone in style to the third anointment as a popularly elected autocrat, the Modi regime has activated its dirty tricks department—raids of Enforcement Directorate, arrest of important politicos in the opposition and the mobilisation of a troll army and several fake news factories that has no hesitation in hitting below the belt at all perceived opponents—and reduced all challengers from within the NDA into political cyphers.

Crammed valise

Like several strongmen rulers of poor Third World countries, Modi likes to dress and drive in expensive style. Even though the per capita income of Singapore is nearly 14 times that of an average Indian, the most populated country of the world can do what the city-state with the second richest population on the planet can’t imagine doing such as splurging on a mission to mars or becoming the largest importer of arms. In his third term, Modi is likely to spend more of taxpayers’ money to buttress his image.

The publicity value of a monkish image in India is immense. Little wonder, Modi once boasted, “Hum to fakir aadmi hai, jhola leke chal padenge (I am an itinerant ascetic, I will move on with my little belongings)". More antics such as meditation in a cave, stroll along seashores or riverfronts or adventures in the wild can’t be ruled out. Perhaps the imperial lifestyle will also be reflected in his policies towards relatively smaller neighbours in South Asia.

On a visit to Kathmandu in 2015, Modi is reported to have asked India’s ambassador Ranjit Rae, presumably about Nepali politicos, “Why don’t they like us?” After two terms, perhaps Modi has got all the answers, and he is not a person that forgets a rejection or forgives a slight. The worst thing he can do to Kathmandu is do nothing: The antipathy of the Indian babudom towards political ‘upstarts’ in Nepal seeking status far in excess of their diplomatic weight by waving the “China Card” is too well-known to need elaboration. The ruling elite in Kathmandu better begin preparing itself for a bumpy ride during Modi’s third term if projections about his victory come true.