Cocoa farmer Joseph Arkoh’s vote in Saturday’s election in Ghana hinges on one unlikely issue: fertiliser.

“All of us farmers are suffering,” the 56-year-old said, as labourers harvested bright yellow pods on his land deep in the bush. “When we meet, the fertiliser and chemicals are big concerns.”

Following the pandemic, a painful cost-of-living crisis and a sovereign debt default, Ghana’s economy is again growing. But the cocoa sector in the world’s number 2 producer is in the throes of a crisis.

In an expected close contest between the ruling New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) Mahamudu Bawumia, the current vice-president, and former president John Dramani Mahama of the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) party, the votes of cocoa farmers could be decisive. And many of them are angry.

“The NPP, they’re not for farmers. They’re for business,” said one farmer in a ruling party stronghold, who asked not to be named. “I am voting NDC.”

Previously, he supported NPP.

Cocoa farming households, estimated to constitute around 2 million voters, are a heavily courted voter bloc in a country with a total electorate of more than 18 million.

As the cocoa sector’s problems help to alienate farmers from the government, at least one voter survey has tipped Mahama to win, although detailed polling data is not available in Ghana.

“Should the trend in favour of the NPP be reversed due to any disaffection over cocoa, this will reinforce a pattern analysts are observing in the upcoming elections: the NPP losing most of the swing vote,” said Bright Simons, of the Accra-based IMANI thinktank.

‘JUST BEGGING’ FOR PRICE RISES

On the campaign trail, both leading candidates are after the cocoa vote.

“We have helped cocoa farmers. Cocoa farming has become good. We’ve raised cocoa price,” Bawumia told growers during a campaign stop last week.

His campaign declined a Reuters request for an interview.

Ghana’s cocoa production peaked in 2021, with output of over 1 million metric tons of beans. But it has been in rapid decline ever since, hitting its lowest level in decades last season.

Analysts say climate change and tree disease are responsible, while many farmers also blame the government for failing to clamp down on wildcat gold mining that has destroyed large parts of the cocoa heartland.

The government-set price for farmers has increased under NPP, but Ghana’s cedi currency is depreciating as global markets for the chocolate ingredient are at historic highs.

That has left farmer incomes lagging global price trends and fuelled smuggling.

“The government should be sympathetic,” said 34-year-old farmer Abubakar Jebril. “We are just begging that they raise the price.”

MONEY FOR MANAGEMENT, CUTS FOR FARMERS

Much of the farmers’ ire is reserved for Cocobod, the state regulator that manages the cocoa sector.

Cocobod did not immediately respond to a Reuters’ request for comment.

Even as production has shrunk, Cocobod’s spending has ballooned. Its accounts showed administrative costs more than tripled between 2018 and 2023, sparking accusations of waste and corruption.

A 2023 government audit of a programme to rehabilitate roads used to transport cocoa to warehouses and ports found that just 13% of contracts were awarded through competitive bidding.

Cocobod awarded contracts worth 18.2 billion cedis ($1.2 billion), or more than six times the programme’s budget.

At the same time, it rolled back free fertiliser distributions for farmers.

“They’re pushing all the money to themselves on cars and other things and reduced spending on the farmers,” Mahama said last week while campaigning in Takoradi, an important cocoa-growing region.

Mahama has promised to distribute free fertiliser, improve Cocobod’s management, cut administrative costs, and combat illegal mining and smuggling.

Bawumia has been less specific but Cocobod, at the International Monetary Fund’s behest, has proposed a turnaround plan to reduce costs and increase farmers’ share of cocoa revenues.

Industry players remain sceptical about either candidate's pledges to reverse the sector’s decline.

On his farm, Arokoh, who voted for the ruling party in the last election, still hopes that Bawumia and the NPP will address his main concern. But so far he has been disappointed.

“If they give me fertiliser, I will vote for them,” he said. “If not, then I will change and vote for NDC.”